Welcome to the 1920s (Again): Why History is on Replay

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The news lately has been depressing. Hell, it has been depressing for, I guess, too long. Mark Twain supposedly said, "History doesn't repeat itself, but it often rhymes." If you look at the geopolitical and economic macro-trends of the world right now, the early 21st century feels like a full-blown cover song of the early 20th century.

Let's look at the scoreboard.

1. The Global Plagues

A century ago, the Spanish Flu brought the world to a grinding halt, exposing the fragility of newly interconnected populations. Fast forward, and COVID-19 did the exact same thing to our hyper-globalized supply chains. Both pandemics acted as massive accelerants, exposing the underlying fractures in society and the economy, and leaving a lingering hangover of inflation and social unrest in their wake.

2. The Hegemonic Handover

In the early 1900s, the sun was setting on the British Empire. Today, we are watching a remarkably similar transition. The historical parallels between the United States today and Britain before 1914 are striking. The US, much like pre-WWI Britain, is a former uncontested hegemon that is now actively rethinking its role in the very international economic system it helped create.  

On the flip side, we have China aiming to unseat the US as the global center of gravity.  

3. The Protectionist Walls

Before 1914, there was tremendous pressure and pushback against 19th-century globalization. In the 1930s, the US slammed the door on global trade with the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act, triggering brutal trade tensions that fueled widespread resentment and economic pain.  

Today, we are watching the exact same movie. The US-China trade wars, decoupling, and "friend-shoring" are the modern equivalents. We are dismantling the hyper-globalized, unipolar world of the 1990s and retreating into fortified economic blocs.  

4. The Political Pendulum

The economic shocks of the 2008 financial crisis left a lasting scar, much like the post-WWI crippled economies did. Back then, rising poverty provided fertile ground for extreme nationalism and fascism in places like Weimar Germany. Today, we see a similar, polarized backlash across the US and Europe, where right-wing populists have gained massive traction by blaming complex financial woes on foreigners and migrants. The political rhetoric always sharpens when the wallet thins.  

5. The Institutional Collapse

In the early 20th century, the League of Nations proved entirely toothless in stopping major powers from waging proxy wars across the globe. Today, major global institutions like the UN and WTO are experiencing a significant erosion of their coordinating power, paralyzed by persistent rivalries among major global actors. We are shifting to a multipolar reality where "Middle Powers"—like the recently expanded BRICS nations—are picking and choosing allies on a case-by-case basis rather than bowing exclusively to Washington. The board is set for friction.  

6. The Technological Upheaval

The early 20th century was completely rewired by the combustion engine, electrification, and mass production. Today, our sudden, explosive advancement is Generative AI.

The Realization

We suffer from generational amnesia. As long as the generation that fought the great wars was alive, the global peace held. Now that those memories belong to history books rather than living grandparents, the hubris has returned.

The world goes in cycles because human nature does. We build, we overextend, we fracture, we fight, and we rebuild. The question for the 21st century isn't whether we are in a cycle—we clearly are. The question is whether we can recognize the rhythm before the music stops.